The maths are simple for a promotion dividend

It's time to get your calculator out - but watch you don't drop it in the excitement that's starting to envelop Molineux.

Since the Football League Championship entered the 21st century, the nine completed seasons have seen the third placed club end up with an average of 83 points.

So history and the laws of probability suggest Wolves need at least 84 points to guarantee a return to the Premier League.

And with 26 games to go, that works out at "only" 13 more wins.

The expectaction surrounding Saturday's game with Birmingham did not match the reality, but the bald facts remain:

Thanks to a rousing final 30 minutes, Wolves didn't lose - and we're still well clear of the two teams that most of us fear.

And even if Reading beat Coventry on Monday evening, we will still be 10 points ahead of Steve Coppell's Royals.

Of course, the doom merchants will remember the way Dave Jones' Wolves surrendered an 11-point promotion lead to the Baggies, but this is a very different group of Molineux men.

What we lacked in experience on Saturday, we made up for with honesty, determination, pace and confidence.

Our goal summed up Mick McCarthy's Wolves. A lung-bursting run from the increasingly admirable Stephen Ward, a touch of skill to evade Raidi Jaidi, and a pass to a proper goalscorer.

And when the moment comes, Sylvan Ebanks-Blake rarely misses.

This was a result to be proud of. The midfield authority of Lee Carsley and Nigel Quashie, combined with the craft of James McFadden, put Blues in control, but never out of sight.

Wolves are top on merit, and once McCarthy withdrew three players who were ineffective on the day - Chris Iwelumo, Michael Gray and David Jones - we started to peg Blues back.

The Michael Kightly we had come to expect was back at the heart of things, after arguably a few weeks on the periphary, and David Edwards probably can't do much more to convince McCarthy he's worth a run in place of Jones.

A fully fit Matt Jarvis holds the key though. Wolves have done wonderfully well to cover for his absence. Get him back, running riot down the left, and this season could get even better.