Sunday 30 November 2008

The maths are simple for a promotion dividend



It's time to get your calculator out - but watch you don't drop it in the excitement that's starting to envelop Molineux.

Since the Football League Championship entered the 21st century, the nine completed seasons have seen the third placed club end up with an average of 83 points.

So history and the laws of probability suggest Wolves need at least 84 points to guarantee a return to the Premier League.

And with 26 games to go, that works out at "only" 13 more wins.

The expectaction surrounding Saturday's game with Birmingham did not match the reality, but the bald facts remain:

Thanks to a rousing final 30 minutes, Wolves didn't lose - and we're still well clear of the two teams that most of us fear.

And even if Reading beat Coventry on Monday evening, we will still be 10 points ahead of Steve Coppell's Royals.

Of course, the doom merchants will remember the way Dave Jones' Wolves surrendered an 11-point promotion lead to the Baggies, but this is a very different group of Molineux men.

What we lacked in experience on Saturday, we made up for with honesty, determination, pace and confidence.

Our goal summed up Mick McCarthy's Wolves. A lung-bursting run from the increasingly admirable Stephen Ward, a touch of skill to evade Raidi Jaidi, and a pass to a proper goalscorer.

And when the moment comes, Sylvan Ebanks-Blake rarely misses.

This was a result to be proud of. The midfield authority of Lee Carsley and Nigel Quashie, combined with the craft of James McFadden, put Blues in control, but never out of sight.

Wolves are top on merit, and once McCarthy withdrew three players who were ineffective on the day - Chris Iwelumo, Michael Gray and David Jones - we started to peg Blues back.

The Michael Kightly we had come to expect was back at the heart of things, after arguably a few weeks on the periphary, and David Edwards probably can't do much more to convince McCarthy he's worth a run in place of Jones.

A fully fit Matt Jarvis holds the key though. Wolves have done wonderfully well to cover for his absence. Get him back, running riot down the left, and this season could get even better.

Friday 28 November 2008

One leg Mick to keep Blues at arm's length

He may still be hobbling on one leg, but Mick McCarthy's got his best foot forward, and it's seemingly heading straight in the direction of the Premier League.

And that's why tomorrow's derby clash with Blues is so eagerly anticipated.

Any local derby is eagerly anticipated, but the excitement levels for this game are sky high.

And the reason? Simple: when Wolves started their latest assault on promotion to the Premier League, we all highlighted Blues and Reading as the team to beat.

Well, last time I looked, we're a whopping 12 points clear of third placed Reading, and if we can sustain our fantastic winning run at Molineux tomorrow, the gap between us and Blues will be a mesmerising nine points.

Last time the Blues came calling, the match was an absolute cracker - http://www.bbc.co.uk/dna/606/A21986229

Heartbreaking, but a cracker - and the joy of watching Wolves tear Blues apart in the opening 30 minutes of spectacular attacking play will live long in the memory.

We just needed a goal to confirm that opening half superiority, and paid the costliest of prices as Cameron Jerome grabbed a late winner.

Make no mistake - Blues are strong, well-organised, have a top manager and contain some really excellent footballers.

But Wolves are strong, well-organised, have a top manager and contain some really excellent footballers.

And if it counts for anything on these titanic occasions, Wolves could not be more bang in form.

Winning the battle of Bramall Lane on Tuesday night tells you everything. Players like Richard Stearman, Stephen Ward, Neill Collins, Kevin Foley, Michael Kightly, Karl Henry and Chris Iwelumo won't be found wanting when the sleeves need rolling up.

There's no need for a battle cry on behalf of Wolves. They will be ready - and Molineux will be rocking.

It won't be a disaster if Wolves are still on 46 points this time tomorrow. And a massive amount of credit will be due to Blues.

If they manage to beat a Wolves team that's playing like this, with seven successive victories, they will have played fantastically well.

And whatever the outcome, Wolves fans must remain massively proud of what our team has produced for us in the first 19 games of a season that could still end being a monumental one.

Watch Mick McCarthy's pre-match thoughts on BBC Midlands Today here: http://uk.youtube.com/watch?v=NNSWd4C0gWQ

Tuesday 25 November 2008

Murray's injury sickener is a grotesque irony

If Wolves indeed reach the Premier League's promised land, Tuesday November 25, 2008, will stand out as the evening that Super Mick's men really laid down a marker of intent.

Not many clubs will emerge from Bramall Lane this season with three goals and three points - and not many clubs will win in the face of such injury adversity.

But as Wolves continue a scintillating assault on promotion to the Premier League, there won't be a single Wolves fan who's not absolutely distraught by the latest injury to Matt Murray.

As Wolves were building a fantastic result in Sheffield, one of the club's best ever goalkeepers was once more being carried from a football pitch in agony.

A man as universally popular as Murray does not deserve this anguish.

A man as talented as Murray does not deserve this crippling run of knee injuries that must leave a massive question mark hanging over his whole footballing future.

No-one said it, but most of us thought it; Murray probably had one last chance to rebuild a career that, but for his shocking catalogue of knee injuries, would surely have brought England honours.

Even now, with Murray almost, almost, back to fitness, there has been talk of Murray reaching South Africa 2010 as he helps out Hereford at the foot of League One.

Not only has Murray had to contend with the knee injuries, he's had the mental battle to win.

He managed to convince his mind, but would his knee stand up to the rigours of professional football ever again?

As his beloved Wolves continued to march to the Premier League, Murray's career was being dealt a hideous, and possibly, fatal blow.

What a grotesque irony.

Every Wolves fan will now anxiously await an injury update on Murray, but the prognosis at this early stage does not look good.

What a crying shame for a fantastic goalkeeper and a fantastic man.

No ticket and no radio - and it's agony

I couldn't get to Bramall Lane this evening, and I can't tune my radio into BBC WM.

I refuse to pay to find out about my team on Wolves World, and the various text commentaries on the internet add facts, but very little if any flavour.

And with Wolves travelling to Sheffield United on a Champions League Tuesday, we've no chance of any coverage on BBC Radio Five Live. We're not even worthy of Five Live Sports Extra.

So I'm reduced to Ceefax and the BBC football website - and all I know 35 minutes in is that Big Chris has scored from a tight angle after an "assist" from Michael Kightly, and poor David Edwards, after such an impressive performance on a rare start at the weekend, has already been stretchered off.

On has come George Friend, who looked so hopelessly off the pace during our drubbing at Swansea.

Now I feel like an ex-pat, hanging on for some positive information about my team. I might as well be on the other side of the world.

I keep refreshing this link: http://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/football/teams/w/wolverhampton_wanderers/live_text/default.stm?refresh

What it's telling me is that we're still one-up, while Blues are already bagging three points at Ipswich.

That's not tonight's dream scenario. An Ipswich win at St Andrew's, and a win for Super Mick's men. Then victory over Blues on Saturday - and we would be a mind-boggling 12 points clear of Alex McLeish's men come quarter past two on November 29.

Twelve points, what a statement of intent that would be. But unless Ipswich do something stunning, it's not going to happen.

Blackpool captain Rob Edwards reckons his old club are going to win the league. Maybe there's a touch of sentiment clouding that judgement.

But it could happen. It really could.

Refresh again, and we're still one-up. It's 35.34 and Billy Sharp has just fouled Carl Ikeme. But he hasn't beaten him - yet.

This is such a massive week for Wolves. But there should be no panic if come Saturday afternoon our fantastic run of victories is at an end.

It's only a massive week if Wolves can secure six points. If we don't, we are still fantastically placed to maintain a promotion push.

Refresh again, and that Sharp challenge must have hurt Ikeme - as Wales' No 1 is back on the pitch.

Ikeme has performed admirably, but Wayne Hennessey is back - and I'd back him to perform fantastically well in the second half.

He may need to.

This is no way to "watch" Wolves. But even though I can't see them, or hear the BBC WM boys, I know exactly how they will be playing with the game having arrived at half time - and that makes me extremely proud.

Monday 17 November 2008

At last, a win over Southampton.

For the first time in 28 years, Wolves beat the Saints. But didn't they make hard work of it?

When David Jones poked home the second goal after just 17 minutes, it honestly looked as though we would avenge the six-goal defeat by Southampton in Super Mick's first season - and possibly even eclipse it.

Wolves, top of the table, supremely confident and on a run of four straight wins, against a Southampton side looking every bit a cash-strapped club flirting with the threat of a season-long battle to avoid the ignominy of relegation to League One.

But the wait for the fourth minute of stoppage time to elapse at the end of the game was a fraught one for 3,000 Wolves fans who'd made the hike to Hampshire.

How could a team that played for at least 50 minutes with 10 men manage to stretch a team that remains six points clear at the top, and 13 points clear of the club just outside the play-off zone?

Maybe it was the perceived injustice of Jason Euell's red card that spurred Southampton on, but make no mistake, Wolves were on the back foot for a fair portion of the second half. And it was uncomfortable viewing.

It was an afternoon that Sylvan Ebanks-Blake will possibly mark down as one of his quietest Wolves games.

But it was also an afternoon when Wolves provided graphic evidence that we're not a team of stars. We're a team - and that's infinitely more important.

Instead of highlighting the subdued afternoon for Ebanks-Blake, greater emphasis should be placed on the performance of the back five.

One Carl Ikeme first half save was sensational, England new boy Michael Mancienne gave further notice of his immense talent and Richard Stearman is a rock.

But the performance highlights for me were on the defensive flanks with Kevin Foley, as always, and the undoubted man of the match, Stephen Ward.

Foley's value has rocketed, and so has the appreciation of Wolves fans for a player who's nearly always worth an eight of 10 - and certainly never anything less than a seven.

While Ward, the Irish striker-turned-left back, tells you everything you need to know about why Wolves are top of the league.

Gritty, determined, honest, reliable, impressive - all admirable adjectives that apply to the boy from Bohemians and the team he now plays for.

At St Mary's he was strong in both the tackle and the air, and linked up athletically and purposefully with an improving Carlos Edwards, the creator of both goals.

Wolves are top because we are showing we can win at places like Southampton without our best players in full flight.

That's because of players like Ward, who Super Mick believes have come to signify the whole fabric of the club.

Remember the trouncings at Swansea and Norwich? Well this Wolves team has taken it squarely on the chin, and subsequently reeled off five successive league wins.

We're the first club in England or Scotland to hit the 40-point mark, and the 39 goals we've scored are more than any club north or south of the border.

Did anyone mention, it's all becoming a touch exciting.